This is really impressive and makes me really rethink my previous notions of a political risk framework, particularly in the context of Africa. No more preface necessary:
Sourced from Africa-Asia Confidential.
Posted in Africa, China, Daily Headlines, Natural Resources, Trade
Tagged FDI, Frontier Markets, Gold, Infrastructure, Oil and Gas, Politics, Risk, transparency/corruption
World gold production last year, sourced from here
. Kind of speaks for itself I think.
Really, nothing else needs to be said:
There is nothing intelligent to be said about gold. Nobody can tell you the right price for an ounce of gold. People will tell you it should go up or go down. To make any intelligent statements about investments you have to know what the right price is. You can’t do that with an asset like gold, which doesn’t produce any cash flow. So you can buy it out of superstition or ignore it because you are an atheist but you cannot buy it with an analytical foundation.
Source link here.
Why does it not surprise me that a map showing commodities reserves of emerging and frontier markets would have come from a Glencore report?
Looking at it in these terms kind of raises an obvious question: how is it that these countries aren’t in more dominant positions of setting the global agenda, policymaking, or development? Chalking it up to corruption is a bit too easy, and I’m honestly coming around to the opinion that nobody is totally free from corruption. It’s partly corruption, sure, but it’s also just simple logistics.
Posted in Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe & Mideast, Features, Natural Resources
Tagged Emerging Markets, Frontier Markets, Gold, Infrastructure, Oil and Gas, Politics
We know South Africa’s a major commodities player, but every once in a while it’s worth reminding ourselves just how much of a player it is:
Sourced from Mr. Mobius.
Corn, gold, silver and oil have been the biggest gainers of major financial assets around the world in the past five years. From Deutsche Bank via Also Sprach Analyst
The Gold Report has an exclusive interview with Carlos Andres chief analyst and managing editor of the Frontier Research Report and the Global Resource Investor that goes into rather gritty detail on risk assessment in the mining sector. If this is your thing, I would recommend reading the entire interview, but following are the bits that grabbed me the most.
Carlos Andres: Now is one of those times where perceived risk is moving close to actual risk. It’s narrowed, even in some of my favorite jurisdictions, like Peru, which is a mining powerhouse and is No. 2 in the world in copper, No. 2 in silver and No. 6 in gold. Nevertheless, it’s experiencing some problems with local unrest to the point where it’s receiving international attention. It’s brought a cloud over Newmont Mining Corp.’s Minas Conga project, which has the green light from government but is moving very slowly in the face of local opposition.
So says Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh:
- Bring complete clarity on all tax matters. We want the world to know that India treats everyone fairly and reasonably and there will be no arbitrariness in tax matters.
- Control the fiscal deficit through a series of measures which my officials are working on and on which we will build consensus in the government.
- Revive the Mutual Fund and Insurance industries which have seen a downturn. Absence of investment avenues has pushed Indian savings into gold. We need to open new doors so that savings can be recycled into productive investments that create jobs and growth, not into gold.
Ben Bernanke’s lecture at George Washington University
last month on the Gold Standard method of fixing currency values continues whipping people into frenzied rants. Not one for frenzied rants, I thought I’d try to make sense of all this, so following are Dr. Ben’s essential arguments, the few remotely coherent reactions I managed to find to this event and then some of my own observations. The video of the March 20 lecture is available here
and a full transcript is here
. The exact points at which he discusses gold are between minutes 28 and 40 in the video and pages 13-17 in the transcript, followed by a student question at page 26.