Category Archives: Philippines

Is Asia’s Foreign Exchange NDF Market The Next Domino To Fall?

2013.03.15.ASEAN mapThat’s the basic question I take away from this recent article from the FT’s Jeremy Grant, which uses a wrongful dismissal lawsuit ex-UBS traders are bringing against their former employer as a gateway to discussing price transparency in the Asian non-deliverable FX market.

The important bit doesn’t come until the second half of the article:

“Quite how this “shadow” fixing system has emerged in Singapore, alongside the official rates set by southeast Asian central banks, is a bit of a mystery. Bankers say it was because traders didn’t historically trust the onshore fixing. It is easy to forget the depth of anti-market feeling in Malaysia during the Asian crisis.”

Actually, how it emerged in Singapore was rather straightforward. Continue reading

Will The Philippines Be The Next Sovereign Upgrade?

Euromoney seems to think so, and I can’t say I disagree:

2013.03.07.Philippines on verge of sovereign upgrade

ECR’s scoring method of risk experts’ opinions is now a well-established alternative to the ratings agencies, not least because of its regular, quarterly updates and rankings approach, with countries placed into five tiered groups based on their total scores. Economists and country-risk experts are asked to evaluate 15 separate indicators.

According to the survey, a credit rating upgrade to the Philippines is long overdue (see chart, above). The sovereign is currently placed above six investment grade borrowers – all in blue – at the top of the fourth of ECR’s five tiered groups. If there is to be a new investment grade the Philippines is a prime candidate – its long-term trend improvement suggests it will soon rise into tier three.

See here for more.

Chart Of The Day: Emerging Markets Currency Wars Landscape

This is interesting:

2013.03.06.Swan FX Diagram

2013.03.06.Swan FX Table

And here’s an explanation of what we’re looking at:

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Chart of the Day: The top 10 stock exchanges of 2012

This is actually going to be a few charts, because the first chart as you can see looks ridiculous:

Top 10 Frontier Market stock exchanges v DJIA

It should go without saying that there’s something very wrong with this picture, and indeed Miguel Octavio sums it up better than anyone I know here, but the long and short of it is that runaway inflation and an ass-headed capital controls regime has wildly overstated the “returns” in Venezuela. So let’s get rid of Venezuela and look at how the rest of these stack up against the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Here’s what we get:

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Global Remittances Zig, Mexico Zags

First came a report from BBVA that remittances to Mexico have decreased for five consecutive months, with the $1.695 billion recorded in November apparently 5.1% lower than in November 2011. Furthermore:

“Among the factors explaining the fall in remittances to Mexico over recent months are: the weak employment situation of Mexican migrants in the U.S., associated with the uncertainty regarding the future of the US economy, with alternatives being sought to adjust the major fiscal deficit. There is also a comparison effect with November 2011, when annual growth in remittances was 9.4%.”

But let’s let the pictures to the talking:

2013.01.10.Mexico remittances

Then comes this article from This Day in Nigeria:

Continue reading