Category Archives: Mongolia

A Very Frank Discussion of Corruption and Risk in Frontier Markets

2013.02.22.Frank discussion of corruption and risk in Frontier MarketsHuge kudos to Andrew Henderson of Nomad Capitalist and Chris Tell of Capitalist Exploits for this discussion of investment prospects primarily in frontier markets. The focus is mainly on Mongolia, but they also cover Fiji, Myanmar and Cambodia. The podcast is worth listening to in its entirety, but the discussion of risk and corruption in particular grabbed my attention for its rare candor. I don’t think Henderson consulted any of the things I’ve previously said about due diligence and liquidity risk, but some of his questions may as well have been lifted directly from some of my thoughts on these themes, most recently here and here.

Since I can’t find any transcription of the interview anywhere, I thought I’d transcribe the salient points directly since this is definitely something I’ll be referring back to: Continue reading

There’s one word for Emerging Markets Debt. And one way to hedge it.

2013.01.11.Emerging Markets debt bubbleEuromoney leads an Emerging Markets debt bubble story with this teaser:

“International money is flying into emerging market sovereign bond markets with frontier credits, such as Zambia, Mongolia and Bolivia, now boasting low yields. The jury is out on whether there is a bubble brewing in developing bond markets in hard currency.”

Um…personally, the jury is in if you ask me. It’s been in for quite a while and I don’t think anyone doubts that there is a bubble. The only question is when it’s going to pop. I mean, seriously folks. Disregard whatever spin you’re hearing from compromised money managers. The facts speak for themselves:
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Leopard Capital discusses Frontier Markets as a safe haven

This is a five minute segment, I can’t find a transcript of it anywhere, and since I have little faith in the permanence of this video’s availability, I thought I would take a few minutes to do a quick transcription. Leopard Capital’s Doug Clayton, whom we last heard from here, went on CNBC Asia last Thursday to discuss frontier markets. Much like CNN, CNBC’s level of sophistication I find to be nothing less than infantile within the US context, but fortunately its foreign bureaus seem to appreciate the importance of a quality conversation and this interview is no exception.

As for Clayton, he opens with the claim that frontier markets are “high growth, low risk”, which I personally find slightly misleading, but other than that minor point, he has some interesting things to say here:

Martin Soong: As China’s and India’s economies show signs of slowing, is it time to turn attention to other markets in Asia for opportunity? Doug Clayton is managing partner at Leopard Capital, he joins our guesthouse with Slim Feriani of Advanced Emerging Capital. Doug, good to see you, welcome back and we talked about a month or so ago, when you were up in Hong Kong. Have your views changed at all on frontier markets?
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Firebird Management Co-founder Harvey Sawiken likes Estonia and Mongolia

Um, is frontier markets investing the new black? Firebird Management Co-founder Harvey Sawiken on Bloomberg TV: