Category Archives: Malaysia

A Tale Of Two Bond Curves: Malaysia vs Indonesia

Thanks to Denise Law for drawing my attention to this…

Malaysia government bond yields fall post-elections:

Govt bond curve - Malaysia May 2013

While Indonesia government bond yields rise after S&P reduced its outlook on Indonesian credit from positive to stable:

Govt bond curve - Indonesia May 2013

Related reading: How Singapore’s currency club fell apart

Is Asia’s Foreign Exchange NDF Market The Next Domino To Fall?

2013.03.15.ASEAN mapThat’s the basic question I take away from this recent article from the FT’s Jeremy Grant, which uses a wrongful dismissal lawsuit ex-UBS traders are bringing against their former employer as a gateway to discussing price transparency in the Asian non-deliverable FX market.

The important bit doesn’t come until the second half of the article:

“Quite how this “shadow” fixing system has emerged in Singapore, alongside the official rates set by southeast Asian central banks, is a bit of a mystery. Bankers say it was because traders didn’t historically trust the onshore fixing. It is easy to forget the depth of anti-market feeling in Malaysia during the Asian crisis.”

Actually, how it emerged in Singapore was rather straightforward. Continue reading

Chart Of The Day: Emerging Markets Currency Wars Landscape

This is interesting:

2013.03.06.Swan FX Diagram

2013.03.06.Swan FX Table

And here’s an explanation of what we’re looking at:

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Indonesia as the driver of Asia’s economic revival

If you can withstand all the coulds, shoulds, mights, caveats and other hedges, McKinsey’s latest Indonesia analysis has some interesting nuggets in there. It’s all good primer material for anyone who wants to get up to speed on what’s happening there but the following excerpts I found the most interesting.

Exports generate only 35 percent of Indonesia’s GDP, with non-commodity exports accounting for 11 percent; the rest comes from domestic consumption. Indonesia’s total exports as a share of GDP are roughly half those of Malaysia in 1989 when the average income there was similar to Indonesia’s today. The share of non-commodity exports in Indonesia’s GDP is about one-third that of Thailand or Malaysia today…

 

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The Next 5 Emerging Markets To Watch?

As part of the Atlantic Monthly’s sporadic coverage of developing markets, it recently proposed Turkey, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, the DRC and Mexico (with Nigeria as the sixth man coming off the bench) as the next 5 emerging economies to “change the world.” And because I hate websites that force you to click through a different page per item of a list, presumably just to keep you clicking, I am summarizing it all on one page here to make for easier digestion.

Directly from the intro:

“Now that we understand the global hierarchy to be less fixed than it once was, who will rise next? The conditions for a rising power are so complicated and so reliant on outside factors beyond any one country’s control that accurately predicting them would be impossible. Still, some countries seem better positioned and better managed than others.”

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